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Black voters continue to over-index among early in-person votes compared to their share of registered voters.
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They currently make up 14.7% of mail ballots cast (up from 14.2% on 10/23) and 16.6% of early in-person votes (up from 15.5% on 10/23). Latinx voters’ vote share in Florida continues to trend up.This is based on official party registration, not modeled partisanship. Democrats still have more outstanding mail ballots than Republicans by a margin of 8.7%. However, Republicans currently hold an 11.0% advantage in early in-person votes (up from 8.1% on 10/23). Democrats are outpacing Republicans in mail ballots cast by 16.2% (down from 17.5% on 10/23).The total number of votes cast in Florida so far (both my mail and EIP) is 59.5% of the total votes cast in Florida in the 2016 general election. Each of those numbers represents a large change from 10/23 (496,403 new mail ballots cast, 907,067 new early in-person votes, and 590,607 fewer outstanding ballots). Another 1,957,236 voters have outstanding mail ballots. 3,660,248 voters in Florida have cast their ballots by mail and 1,945,020 have voted early in-person.First-time voters are now 6.2% of mail ballots cast (up from 4.9% one week ago). There has been an increase in vote share for first-time voters in the last week.Black voters are just 14.3% of registered voters nationally, but make up 13.9% of early in-person voters. Black voters continue to turn out at high rates for early in-person voting.Voters 65+ now make up 43.2% of mail ballots cast (down from 44.5% on 10/23) and 34.1% of early in-person votes (down from 36.4% on 10/21). The vote share of the oldest voters, those 65 and up, has seen a corresponding decrease in the last few days. Voters 18-29 now make up 9.6% of mail ballots cast (up from 9.0% on 10/23) and 10.2% of early in-person votes (up from 9.4% on 10/23). Young voters’ share of votes cast so far continues to rise.Democrats still have many more outstanding mail ballots than Republicans by a margin of 14.9% (no change from 10/23).
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However, Republicans hold a 1.3% advantage in early in-person votes (up from 10/23 when Democrats held a 1.2% advantage). Using modeled partisanship combined with party affiliation where it’s available, we can estimate that Democrats hold a 19.4% advantage over Republicans in mail ballots cast (down from 20.1% on 10/23).The number of people who have already voted or requested a ballot represents about 65% of the total votes cast in the 2016 general election. Another 34 million people have an outstanding mail ballot. As of October 26th, just over 55 million people have already voted in the 2020 election, both by mail and early in-person voting.